چهارشنبه، بهمن ۱۶، ۱۳۸۷

Hope

So Iran's lunch of a small satellite called Omid, went without a hitch, and that little thing is now orbiting the earth, at an elliptical orbit with apogees of 322 km and perigees of 242 km, once every 90 minutes. So what does it mean for the nation of Iran.

First it is a milestone, it is important for our confidence, and sense of self-esteem, this however can not be fully realized. The government kept the name of mission chiefs secret, the lunch location secret, the principal designers and the team that worked to make the satellite secret. Every thing was kept in complete airtight confidence. Iranians don't trust their government (no one really should, if you do trust your government you should get your head examined) so how are they supposed to know that the people who designed tested, built and launched this satellite were or weren't Iranians ? Keep in mind that I am not saying that this is so, I am actually pretty confident that they did it, but for this success to translate in to a higher confidence it has to be publicized properly and people has to feel that this is a success of their own. Keeping every thing secret doesn't really help. They should have worked on public relation aspect much better.

Second, Just because you can launch a satellite does not mean you are now an industrial nation. This is really good, and I am happy they did it, but people can't eat the satellite nor can they live in it. We need high paying jobs, we need growth and development and technological know-how that enables us to make goods and take care of our needs. China, Russia and India all achieved launch capabilities while massive number of their people lived in abject poverty. While South Korea didn't go for space technology and yet became the 11th wealthiest nation on earth and all that with an area of 9400 sq km, True US financing and protection helped, but you have to give it to them. Let's hope that lessons learned here can be applied in more practical technologies like semi-conductor technologies.

Third, It appears to me that Iran is determined to follow the Chinese pre-high growth model. The high growth of China was built on the back of millions of low wage workers and a trade policy that allowed Western companies have their goods built in by those low wage laborers, without being taxed substantially and to keep their lisences and protections intact. We can't do that, for the simple reason that we don't have a one billion strong army of hungry starving people ready to work long hours for peanuts. Nor should we pursue any policy remotely resembling that of chinese, for the obvious reason that is inhumane exploitation of human misery. This is wrong.

What we must do is to revolutionize how we manage our economy. The Government must provide information, guidance, security, training, financing, protection and hands-off management of resources and people, by constantly shifting people's economic activities from low yield, low profit regime to high yield, high profit corridore and shifting a portion of that profit from high earning, high income levels, back to low earning low income levels of population. That way, peoples become capable of manufacturing goods and services at the same time that they become capable of consuming and purchasing them. This will create a balanced economy that can sustain itself without massive national expenditure. This can not be achieved by launching a satellite, This must be achieved by compeltely changing how we think about economic management and planning.

It's about people.

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Read my notes here, you'll know all you need to know.